Abstract
Climate change is one of the most important and acknowledged risks facing humanity (IPCC, 2022b). In assessing that risk, most discussions in science and policy focus on global mean warming in the range of 1.0 – 4.0°C above pre-industrial levels. While our odds of staying within that range have significantly improved over the past years (Meinshausen et al., 2022; IPCC, 2022a), even relatively moderate levels of warming imply drastic consequences for vulnerable groups and individuals (IPCC, 2022b). Nonetheless, these impacts would likely pale in comparison against the repercussions of extreme climate change. Unfortunately, little sustained attention was devoted to extreme climate change for a long time (Jehn et al., 2021; King et al., 2015). Only recently have researchers begun to study these risks in more depth (Hilton, 2022; Beard et al., 2021; Richards et al., 2021; Sandberg, 2019; Kareiva & Carranza, 2018; Ng, 2016). In contrast to other cause areas such as artificial intelligence or biotechnology, where the balance between opportunities and risks is often debated (see the respective sections in this research agenda), there is universal consensus that the negative impacts of extreme climate change would massively outweigh any positive side effects. The choices of current generations in this matter will have definitive effects for millennia to come, elevating the urgency of short-term action (Clark et al., 2016).
